Here are some flight predictions based on both actual soundings taken on the days indicated, and some predicted data based on various wind models.

This will be updated regularly as we prepare for launch.


Actual sounding, Dulles Airport, December 5, 1200Z
Note that this prediction shows burst over Tilghman Island with a touchdown in Delaware.
The sounding indicated winds blowing 90 degrees all the way up, with velocities ranging from 35 to over 120 mph!


Predicted winds, GFS model, December 8, 1500Z
The wind angle is now slightly greater than 90 degrees, but still pretty constant all the way up. Wind velocities are predicted to range from 35 to 100 mph. Overall distance from launch to touchdown is 144 miles.


Actual sounding, Dulles Airport, December 7, 1200Z
The wind angle is now close to 80 degrees, but still pretty constant all the way up. Wind velocities are predicted to range from 35 to 115 mph. Overall distance from launch to touchdown is 114 miles. Note that this sounding only goes up to about 50,000 feet.


Wind profile from the sounding used above.

Here's a Google Earth flight profile for the path if we had launched today, December 17:
0712171200.kml
With today's winds, the ground track has shortened to 65 miles at 100 degrees.
Tuesday, December 18 Update:


Actual sounding, Dulles Airport, December 18, 1200Z
The wind angle is now close to 110 degrees and slowing down quite a bit from what we saw a week ago. Wind velocities are predicted to range from 10 to 90 mph. Overall distance from launch to touchdown is 68 miles. This sounding appears to go up to about 95,000 feet.


Wind profile from the sounding used above.

Here's a Google Earth flight profile for the path if we had launched today, December 18:

With today's winds, the ground track would be 68 miles at 110 degrees.

Friday, December 21 Update:


Actual sounding, Dulles Airport, December 21, 1200Z
The wind angle is now close to 110 degrees and slowing down quite a bit from what we saw a week ago. Wind velocities are predicted to range from 10 to 90 mph. Overall distance from launch to touchdown is 68 miles. This sounding appears to go up to about 95,000 feet.


Predicted winds, GFS model, December 21, 2007 for launch 21 hours from now at 10:00 AM, 12/22. Overall distance from launch to landing is 57 miles at 106 degrees from the launch site.

Here's a Google Earth flight profile for the path if we had launched today, December 21:


A Successful Flight!:

Launch at 15:22:12 (10:22 AM)

Peak at 16:22:54 (11:22 AM) 82,824 feet (there was another packet at over 83,000 feet, but I didn't receive it.)

Landing at 17:04:17 (12:04 PM)Here is the Google Earth profile for the VWS-5 flight on December 22, 2007.